The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model $X_t=\gamma Z_t+Y_t$, where $Z_t$ belongs to a large class of deterministic regressors and $Y_t$ is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression, and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are ${\chi }^2$-distributed.     

Consumption Fluctuations and Expected Returns

This paper introduces a novel consumption-based variable, cyclical consumption, and examines its predictive properties for stock returns. Future expected stock returns are high (low) when aggregate consumption falls (rises) relative to its trend and marginal utility from current consumption is high (low). We show that the empirical evidence ties consumption decisions of agents to time variation in returns in a manner consistent with asset pricing models based on external habit formation. The predictive power of cyclical consumption is not confined to bad times and subsumes the predictability of many popular forecasting variables.     

FLOWS OF THE PACIFIC: ASIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS THROUGH TRANQUILITY AND TURBULENCE

Using the longest data set on foreign exchange (FX) order flow to date, along with the broadest coverage of currencies to date, we examine the effect of FX order flow on exchange rates across small and large currencies, currencies with floating or fixed regimes, and across both tranquil and turbulent periods. Over our 15 years of data for 11 Asian and Australasian currencies, we find that order flow has a potentially strong impact on all exchange rates in the sample. The effect is strongest on floating exchange rates, both economically and statistically, but is sizeable also on the other exchange rates, especially during periods of turbulence. By creating a measure of regional order flow, we show that all exchange rates depreciate as flows are moved out of Asia/Australasia and into US dollars. This is true both across regimes and if their own flow is not included in the structure of the regional flow.     

Reflections on the ontological status of risk

In this article we discuss the concept of risk in an ontological perspective. Risk per se is not a self-explaining concept that ‘exists’ by its own virtue. Our discussion is therefore based on existing methodologies and epistemological claims concerning risk. With these claims as our point of departure, we examine risk in relation to the concept of time, state of affairs (the state of the world) and events and discuss relations and constitutional issues for the risk concept. Drawing on a relation between time and state of affairs, we argue that risk is rooted in the transition from the future to the present. Risk is being constituted by the transition from a myriad of future possibilities into one present reality (one actual contingent world). This implies that risk is not ontologically something of the future, but rather something of the present. However, we argue that risk does not exist in any ontological sense. What actually exist are possible (future) states of affairs and these may or may not be interpreted to hold risk. An implication of this is that all risk claims are subjective.     

Regulations for the Eighth International Congress of Actuaries

Abstract

The present paper proposes and investigates a procedure for numerical evaluation of the transition probabilities for a time-inhomogeneous Markov process when the intensities are known (estimated). The procedure is based on Taylor-expansion of the transition probabilities linked with the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations.     

Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors

This paper develops a basic model for output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors under two alternative monetary policy regimes; exchange rate targeting (or monetary union) and inflation targeting. The conventional wisdom from one-sector models says that inflation targeting gives better output stabilization than exchange rate targeting when demand shocks occur, but the opposite when supply shocks occur. In a model with a traded and a non-traded sector, we show that the conventional wisdom holds for the non-traded sector. However, for the traded sector, we show that inflation targeting destabilizes output compared with exchange rate targeting when both supply and demand shocks occur. The only shocks where inflation targeting provides the better output stability for the traded sector are shocks to world market prices. The two-sector structure introduces new mechanisms that may turn around earlier results for aggregate production. For instance, a demand shock may induce higher aggregate output fluctuations with inflation targeting than with exchange rate targeting. Furthermore, a positive demand shock may prove to be contractionary under inflation targeting.     

The Path to Service Encounter Performance in Public and Private ‘Bureaucracies’

This article examines the evolution of building societies against a background of environmental change. By the application of specific analytical measures developed by Ansoff five distinct periods of change can be isolated. Key events in the environment have become progressively more novel, less predictable and costlier to deal with, which, in turn, has necessitated both operational and strategic redirection.     

A passage to India: A dual case study of activities,processes and resources in offshore outsourcing of advanced services

Research has shown that offshore outsourcing processes may influence the behavior and strategic choices of firms, but little is known about the determining factors that influence the evolution and outcomes of those processes. Furthermore, longitudinal studies able to generate such insights are lacking. This paper suggests a detailed, activity-based approach to the study of the process of offshore outsourcing of high-value, advanced service activities. While earlier research has considered either firm-internal or firm-external sources of resource building, this study offers a more comprehensive theoretical model that combines resource-based theory and international business network theory. It aims to investigate how determinants of the offshore outsourcing process contribute to the resource stocks of client firms. Based on two longitudinal case studies of offshore outsourcing to India, the study finds that offshore outsourcing operations, in general, make positive contributions to the resource stocks of client firms. Some determinants contribute to the building of resources (partnership commitment decisions, knowledge creation and learning, trust building, the interconnectedness of resources) while others impede resource building (time compression diseconomies, lack of resource mass efficiencies). Notably, the interconnectedness among onshore activities, offshore activities and the underpinning knowledge resources reduces the risk of erosion of client firm resources, although this remains a long-term risk.     

Continuous‐time models,realized volatilities,and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns

We provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous‐time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance. Our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and non‐parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high‐frequency intra‐day data. A sequence of simple‐to‐implement moment‐based tests involving various transformations of the daily returns speak directly to the importance of different distributional features, and may serve as useful diagnostic tools in the specification of empirically more realistic continuous‐time asset pricing models. On applying the tests to the 30 individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, we find that it is important to allow for both time‐varying diffusive volatility, jumps, and leverage effects to satisfactorily describe the daily stock price dynamics. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cognitive,Emotional, and Sociocultural Processes in Consumption

This article examines deliberative, emotional, and sociocultural processes in consumption. The authors draw upon basic processes from two leading theories in social psychology, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the model of goal‐directed behavior (MGB), to develop a comprehensive approach to decision making more appropriate for many consumption decisions, and revise the representation and modeling of key variables to better reflect how social psychological processes relate to consumer behavior. A survey was conducted among real adult consumers of bacalhau in Portugal. Because it is most common for women to prepare bacalhau meals in Portugal, 153 female participants were recruited for this survey. The results show that the TPB, and especially the MGB, are found to explain food consumption decisions well but only after the approaches are modified in form and content to accommodate the complex emotional and social aspects of the consumption context. The results also show that the effects of key determinants of desire in the MGB are contingent on the traits of food involvement and cultural orientation (i.e., degree of vertical individualism). The approach taken herein overcomes limitations of existing theories by synthesizing relevant processes across two leading theories and by introducing new variables and processes, thereby showing that the organization of these processes and their contingency on cultural variables regulate consumption.